Bayesian Network Integration of Event Tree and SLIM-Based Human Reliability for Fire and Explosion Risk Assessment: BP-Husky Toledo Refinery Case Study
##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.sidebar##
Download : 0
##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.main##
Abstract
The oil and gas processing industry is critical for meeting global energy demand, yet it remains vulnerable to high-consequence accidents such as fires and explosions. This study presents a probabilistic risk assessment of a vapour cloud explosion and fire case at the BP-Husky Toledo Refinery using accident investigation report data. The objective is to obtain a more comprehensive representation of accident risk by integrating the performance of physical safety barriers and human reliability within a single analytical framework. Physical escalation pathways and consequence scenarios are modelled using event tree analysis, while human error likelihood is evaluated using the success likelihood index method based on identified error modes and performance shaping factors. Both components are then integrated using a Bayesian network to quantify consequence probabilities and examine the effect of adding a human error barrier and proposed barrier improvements. The results show that the consequence distribution is dominated by near-miss outcomes (approximately 57%) with smaller probabilities for flash fire (about 14%), vapour cloud explosion (about 13%), and rupture (about 16%). Incorporating the human error barrier produces only marginal changes in these probabilities. Nevertheless, the integrated approach improves clarity in linking specific human error mechanisms and barrier performance to overall risk and supports structured evaluation of barrier improvements for accident prevention.
##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.details##
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c): Fairuz Putra Hanem, Adhitya Ryan Ramadhani (2025)References
[2] A. R. Ramadhani and A. Halfan, "Fire and explosion modelling of a gas transmission pipeline in a populated residential area," MOTIVECTION: Journal of Mechanical, Electrical and Industrial Engineering, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 177–190, Jun. 2024, doi: 10.46574/motivection.v6i2.327.
[3] Vipin, S. K. Pandey, S. M. Tauseef, T. Abbasi, and S. A. Abbasi, “Pool Fires in Chemical Process Industries: Occurrence, Mechanism, Management,” Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention, vol. 18, pp. 1224–1261, Jul. 2018, doi: 10.1007/s11668-018-0517-2.
[4] E. Allison and B. Mandler, "Health and safety in oil and gas extraction: Reducing the exposure of oil and gas workers to health and safety hazards," in Petroleum and the Environment. Alexandria, VA, USA: American Geosciences Institute, 2018.
[5] S. Jiang, G. Chen, Y. Zhu, X. Li, X. Shen, and R. He, "Real-time risk assessment of explosion on offshore platform using Bayesian network and CFD," Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, vol. 72, Art. no. 104518, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.jlp.2021.104518.
[6] S. Lee, "Quantitative risk assessment of fire and explosion for regasification process of an LNG-FSRU," Ocean Engineering, vol. 197, Art. no. 106825, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106825.
[7] J. C. Williams and R. Willey, "Quantification of human error in maintenance for process plant probabilistic risk assessment," IChemE Symposium Series, no. 93, pp. 353–365, 1981.
[8] H. Rozuhan, M. Muhammad, and U. M. Niazi, "Probabilistic risk assessment of offshore installation hydrocarbon releases leading to fire and explosion, incorporating system and human reliability analysis," Applied Ocean Research, vol. 101, Art. no. 102282, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.apor.2020.102282.
[9] M. M. Ridwan and A. R. Ramadhani, "Human reliability assessment (HRA) of fire and explosion cases at fuel filling stations (SPBU)," MOTIVECTION: Journal of Mechanical, Electrical and Industrial Engineering, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 13–24, Jan. 2024, doi: 10.46574/motivection.v6i1.285.
[10] U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB), "Fatal naphtha release and fire at BP-Husky Toledo refinery: Investigation report," 2024.
[11] N. Khakzad, "A tutorial on fire domino effect modeling using Bayesian networks," Modelling, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 240–258, 2021, doi: 10.3390/modelling2020013.
[12] H. Bui, T. Sakurahara, S. Reihani, E. Kee, and Z. Mohaghegh, "Probabilistic validation: Computational platform and application to fire probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants," ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering, vol. 10, no. 2, Art. no. 021004, 2024, doi: 10.1115/1.4063071.
[13] M. Z. Ramdhan, D. A. Rizq, A. Senna, and A. R. Ramadhani, "A comparative study of human reliability assessment using Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) and Human Error Assessment & Reduction Technique (HEART): A case study from a Boeing 737 MAX accident," MOTIVECTION: Journal of Mechanical, Electrical and Industrial Engineering, vol. 7, no. 1, 2025, doi: 10.46574/motivection.v7i1.431.
[14] R. Mareş and M. Popescu-Stelea, "The application of event tree analysis in a work accident at maintenance operations," MATEC Web of Conferences, vol. 121, Art. no. 11013, 2017, doi: 10.1051/matecconf/201712111013.
[15] A. Srivastava, "Generalized event tree algorithm and software for dam safety risk analysis," M.S. thesis, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA, 2008.
[16] J. D. Andrews and S. J. Dunnett, "Event-tree analysis using binary decision diagrams," IEEE Transactions on Reliability, vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 230–238, 2000, doi: 10.1109/24.877343.
[17] M. I. T. R. Tjahjono and A. R. Ramadhani, "Quantitative risk assessment of hydrotreated vegetable oil at an oil and gas company," The Indonesian Journal of Occupational Safety and Health, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 322–333, 2024, doi: 10.20473/ijosh.v13i3.2024.322-333.
[18] J. Bell and J. Holroyd, Review of Human Reliability Assessment Methods. Bootle, U.K.: Health and Safety Executive, 2009.
[19] F. Venco, "Structural learning of Bayesian networks using statistical constraints," M.S. thesis, University of Padova, Padua, Italy, 2012.
[20] M. Á. Tubía, "Facilitating the inference interpretation in Bayesian networks," Ph.D. dissertation, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain, 2023.
[21] P. Woolf, Chemical Process Dynamics and Controls. Ann Arbor, MI, USA: University of Michigan, 2024.
[22] J. Tu and Y. Lou, Proceedings, 2013 International Conference on Mechatronic Sciences, Electric Engineering and Computer (MEC): December 20–22, 2013, Shenyang, China. Piscataway, NJ, USA: IEEE, 2013.
[23] A. A. Nurdiawati et al., "Human error probability analysis of overhead crane operation in steel fabrication company using SLIM-DEMATEL-ANP method," MATEC Web of Conferences, vol. 204, Art. no. 05012, 2018, doi: 10.1051/matecconf/201820405012.
[24] International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (IOGP), "Risk Assessment Data Directory: Ignition Probabilities," Rep. 434-6, Sept. 2019.
[25] OREDA Participants, Offshore Reliability Data Handbook, 4th ed. Høvik, Norway: Det Norske Veritas, 2002.